Too many variables to say for certain, but if you base that only on the current seniority needed to hold narrow body A & normal rate of retirement attrition, that seems to be pretty close.

Tough to have a real answer with airline growth, aircraft deliveries, etc. baked in.

According to Widget Seniority, guys who were hired in the back half of 2023 are looking at a 6-7 year window from date of hire to hold 737A.