Originally Posted by Turbosina;[url=tel:4008421
4008421]You have no idea who I am, nor how my extended family has suffered at the hands of the murderous , corrupt fanatics who started the "Islamic Revolution" and hold Iran in their grip. Few things would make me happier than to see them gone. One of my closest friends was murdered by a Hezbollah "martyr" while serving his time in the Israeli army. I have only hatred for that regime, believe me.
And I guarantee you I've spent more time in the Middle East than you have, unless you served at least four full tours deployed in that area.
But none of that means that I believe that there's a coherent strategy in place inside this administration for what happens next. Iran is a country of 90 million people, only about 60 percent of whom are ethnically Persian. It's a melting pot of many cultures, religions, and loyalties. It's also a country with a vast security apparatus -- there are over one million members of the Basenji, which given your extensive experience I'm sure you're familiar with. Anyone who thinks that the Iranian military and security state will simply "hand over their weapons to the people" (to quote Trump) is utterly delusional. What is the endgame here? Civil war is a very, very real possibility, as is the chances of more hard-line factions taking control. Are we prepared to invade Iran? That'd make Iraq look like Panama. There is no endgame -- there is no clear strategy -- and I have zero confidence that this administration has any plans for what happens beyond next week.
I don't see any posts from you, either. This isn't a political forum, after all, which is why you don't see me posting what you suggest.
It's funny how you think the fact I'm junior to you is somehow an insult or a statement that lends credence to your blathering.
So you support efforts to end the regime, but don’t understand the why or approve that it’s us doing it. You’re not supposed to know the “coherent strategy.” What, you want the OPORD posted to Facebook for public approval? Should we send you the ATO for your daily approval too? The messaging has been clear, this was planned to be a four week operation, and they’re ahead of schedule. That’s all anyone needs to know. They’re currently playing “line of succession whack a mole” and the IRGC and Artesh seem to just be executing standing orders in hand.
If you want to know how this “could” play out, and to your assessment of the situation on the ground, you can draw a lot of parallels with the fall
of communist Romania, and the situation on the ground in Iran, the current military operations not withstanding. As you’re aware the regular army and the IRGC are not the same thing, and if you know anything about the targets being hit, aside from the regime, the IRGC has taken the brunt. The messaging and targeting has been very clear, it’s the regime and that security apparatus being taken out. The Artesh isn’t going unscathed but they aren’t the bullseye. Just like in Romania, you get the regular army to turn their guns on the regime/IRGC, and back the people, there’s the beginning of your end state. Regime opposition can start putting back together a pre-1979 revolution govt they all want back, either bringing back the Shahs son, democratically or some combination of options. Bottom line, you have a very large resistance, a decapitated regime, and a rudderless security apparatus. However this isn’t Libya, the population is a much more coalesced. See below for more “strategy” in the potential third order effects.
FYI I had four tours/deployments done before I was half way though my 25+,year career, I can count my time over there in years all of it in direct combat operations.
Originally Posted by But seriously;[url=tel:4008452
4008452]See, there are three kinds of people: d1cks, pus$es, and a$sholes. Pu$sies think everyone can get along, and d1cks just want to f*ck all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your as$holes. And all the a$sholes want is to $hit all over everything. So pus$ies may get mad at d1cks once in a while, because pu$sies get f*cked by d1cks. But d1cks also f*ck a$sholes! And if they didn't f*ck the a$sholes, you know what you'd get? You'd get your d1ck and your pu$sy all covered in $hit!
Had to quote just to say, awesome. Anyone that doesn't know this quote should educate themselves.
Originally Posted by 11atsomto;[url=tel:4008445
4008445]I'm not quite sure what will be come of Iran next, I don't see a healthy secular social democracy with a robust economy built on the foundations of oil and natural gas. That being said I ll take my chances against it being less threatening than the Ayatollah with nuclear weapon capability. In the aftermath of Arabic Spring (note Iran is not Arabic) there were several Theocratic like governments that rose from the ashes most notably Egypt, which due to ineptitude, then gave way to another Spring and spawned the Military dictatorship which still exists today.
I think it may be unpopular but I think not all of our adversarial power brokers respect and live by al-jihad al-akbar (jihad of the mind)....I think all they know is al-jihad al-asghar (jihad of the sword) or to put in more of a western streetwise sense....:
Netanyahu and Trump may be like a male genetalias, we know they often take advantage and pierce the skin of weaker Western European politicians more like female gentalias, but they can also be inserted into anuses and thats what Ali Khamenei was, because that way they block all the excrement from going all over the place.
Think about this… just maybe this isn’t really about Iran. It is, but it’s also about China (and Russia).
Between Venezuela, and now Iran, China has lost two major oil and energy providers. Russia has now lost a major weapons provider for their efforts in Ukraine. No one is talking about (yet) the effects this will have on the Ukraine war. It also just proved, again, Russian and Chinese defense systems to be completely worthless. China now needs to really rethink whether they can really pull of an invasion of Taiwan with US backed opposition.
This administration is solidifying power and control (and thus security) in the western hemisphere, while the second and third order effects haven’t been fully appreciated yet across other geopolitical issues.