Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Probably not. We won't be doing any kind of significant ground combat, and Iran certainly isn't in a position to invade it's neighbors a la Iraq in 1990.
This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.
Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.
AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).
I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.
It’s effectively closed. Yesterday there were 750 ships holding out unwilling to transit if uninsured. All the major maritime insurers revoked coverage in the area.
Trump is however in the end a business man. When his backers start putting pressure on him he will find a way to close this out. I don’t think it goes beyond 30 days. It should be noted that the one thing that could truly cripple Iran long term is to take out there oil port and associated facilities. Kharg island has been essentially untouched.