Originally Posted by
Grumble
of communist Romania, and the situation on the ground in Iran, the current military operations not withstanding. As you’re aware the regular army and the IRGC are not the same thing, and if you know anything about the targets being hit, aside from the regime, the IRGC has taken the brunt. The messaging and targeting has been very clear, it’s the regime and that security apparatus being taken out. The Artesh isn’t going unscathed but they aren’t the bullseye. Just like in Romania, you get the regular army to turn their guns on the regime/IRGC, and back the people, there’s the beginning of your end state. Regime opposition can start putting back together a pre-1979 revolution govt they all want back, either bringing back the Shahs son, democratically or some combination of options. Bottom line, you have a very large resistance, a decapitated regime, and a rudderless security apparatus. However this isn’t Libya, the population is a much more coalesced. See below for more “strategy” in the potential third order effects.
Agree roughly that setting the table for IRI military to counter IRGC isn't an unreasonable concept. But man is IRGC deeply integrated into basically everything... security, police, intel, economy, government. Tough weeds to extricate.
Originally Posted by
Grumble
Think about this… just maybe this isn’t really about Iran. It is, but it’s also about China (and Russia).
Between Venezuela, and now Iran, China has lost two major oil and energy providers. Russia has now lost a major weapons provider for their efforts in Ukraine. No one is talking about (yet) the effects this will have on the Ukraine war. It also just proved, again, Russian and Chinese defense systems to be completely worthless. China now needs to really rethink whether they can really pull of an invasion of Taiwan with US backed opposition.
This administration is solidifying power and control (and thus security) in the western hemisphere, while the second and third order effects haven’t been fully appreciated yet across other geopolitical issues.
Yes multiple second/third order effects. Intentional and coordinated? If so, pure genius. Not sure I quite buy that yet. I guess time will tell.
But China has observed and learned over the years...
Gulf-I taught them (and many others too) that their soviet-era hardware and doctrine was worthless against the US. That kicked off the Chinese revolution in military affairs, which led to the large, reasonably competent, and possibly effective PLA force which we face off today. Although the PLA hasn't engaged in any real campaigns in many decades, trying to pull off a Main Event like Taiwan would most assuredly reveal some structural flaws.
Ukraine taught China that the west won't sit idle and turn a blind eye to the blatant redrawing of borders by force.
They are proceeding with extreme caution now, they can't safely assume that we'd sit out Taiwan, or that that we'd lose if we didn't sit it it out.
Plus Taiwan itself is a hard nut to crack... geography favors the home team, and the strait has more in common with a moat than an easy avenue of approach.
I think their only practical means of taking on Taiwan would be to blockade the island and try to starve them out... hoping like hell the US doesn't get involved (they are patient, and would presumably wait for a compliant US administration... which is to say not this one, or likely the next one.