Originally Posted by
Boeing Aviator
What you say above is all technically correct? However, we both know how lucky we were.
First, if it wasn’t for Cares 1, 2 & 3 (US government literally saving our A$$). Things would’ve been much different. Many airlines, including us could’ve have filed bankruptcy and or shut down & completely liquidated.
Does that mean the industry would’ve been doomed? Absolutely not, it would’ve restarted back again with reincarnated and or new airlines. With new seniority lists and/or new contracts. Etc.
The timing of how Covid ultimately turned out for us (pilots) was pure luck and quite remarkable. It could’ve easily been much longer and much worse for all of us employees - most specifically pilots. You don’t remember Kirby literally crying on an employee town hall? I’m not saying I believe it was 100% real tears, maybe 50% an act 50% him really feeling some genuine emotions for the employees.
I’m not debating how bad or NOT bad it’s gonna get now. But your statement above is completely disingenuous and completely inaccurate in total context. We were extremely lucky how we came out of Covid. It could’ve easily been 1000 times worse for us pilots.
Yoy may or may not know this. Kirby is a gambler. He can’t walk into any Vegas casino because he’s been banned as a card counter for decades. He gambled and it paid off. It could’ve easily turned out much worse for us with the pathway he took.
^^^This^^^ Covid was a completely uncharted territory in this industry. Luckily it worked out. I realize that it was the first really bit industry “Uhoh” for a lot of the younger pilots, but they need to realize that how things went during Covid can’t be relied on for future events.
That said, the reference of a 4000 pilot furlough IF (big if) things were to take a really bad turn with current events would equate to approximately 20% of the current seniority list. That’s not a completely outlandish percentage. For reference, what percentage (not number) of pilots were furloughed as a result of 9/11?
The big advantage that furlough zone pilots have now is upcoming retirements. Furloughing at an airline as big as any of the current legacies is a very costly event for the company. Pilots would need to be furloughed for a substantial amount of time before it would be financially beneficial to the airline. Luckily, there will be over 1000 pilots retiring over the next two years… Over 3000 over the next five. That might be enough to fend off, or at least greatly mitigate, any damage to the bottom of the seniority list.