Even if fuel stays high and some travel dwindles, it could still not be that bad for some airlines. Oil went to the inflation adjusted equivalent of around $220/bbl, during a financial crisis and a recession, with multiple large wars going on, a merger happening, and the fleet of planes most legacies had (especially DL) were MUCH less efficient, with the industry less consolidated. And no refinery either.

Hundreds of 88/DC9/more 757’s than today, 4 engine whales, no NEO’s or MAX’s (industry wide) and the skies darkened with grossly inefficient 50 seat RJ’s, a ruthless and irrational yield trashing ULCC in ATL, one exceptionally well run LCC with a multi billion dollar fuel hedging head start with big ambitions to bury a legacy or two, all with the industry awash in venture capital for any and every start up fantasy imaginable (domestic, premium international, etc) for rich people who like to play with airplanes.

Yet the industry survived and became stronger than ever. Most attribute the now semi-common “capacity discipline” mentality to that era as well. And at least one ULCC went under because of it (SkyBus, which, were it not for that, could have hundreds of planes by now). No one is saying there’s not some headwinds at the moment. But the industry has never, nor will ever, ride only the boom years and nothing else. IMO no one should be lifting the guard on the panic button yet. Well except maybe the 23M7 farmers lol.