In the short term, yes. Longer term if there are major disruptions to the availability and/or cost of all the various components that pass through the straight (not just oil, but natural gas, fertilizer, helium, etc) then the entire world economy could be in for some prolonged pain.

I don’t think anyone here is really concerned about Q1 or 2 this year. The back half of this year and into 2027 are very much at risk. The worst case scenarios may not play out, but there is certainly a chance that they do.