Originally Posted by
e6bpilot
Although a merger of two smaller carriers definitely seems likely in a protracted $100+ oil scenario, I don't think any of the 4 largest carriers will be a part of that.
The big 4 basically all have 17 percent of market share. The next biggest is Alaska with 6. You need scale to survive in this industry. Alaska could easily manage it with some debt or by raising cash. They would be a natural fit.
Alaska’s plan is to be a 737/787 only airline like Westjet. They don’t need, nor do they want a bunch of Airbus’. They literally shut down JFK after the Virgin merger to stay a West coast airline and gave up the Airbus to go back to Boeing only.
Seriously doubt UAL gets approval to buy B6 unless they give up a ton in the NY area.