Originally Posted by dracir1

This is a very good question. And the answer is just as good. AS LONG AS IT TAKES. However, I don't think it'll take as long as you think. Several reasons.

1). The make up of our pilot force is different than last time. It's younger. It's less Denver-centric. It's less tolerant of BS excuses of why we should accept less. The youth can "wait" for better results (or leave).

2). Timing is on our side. W/ the industry moving to 3 year contracts, the next cycle of negotiations will be here more quickly. For the Big 4, snap ups make it not that big of a deal for them of who gets how much - they ALL get the next incremental increase. In fact, their next round shouldn't take much negotiation as DALPA will set the bar and the others will instantaneously get the same rate. Only the non-snap up contracts have to still really "negotiate."

3). We live in a world with MUCH more information than last time. Our attrition is already bad - it'll just get worse the longer we go w/o a contract and with the rumors of what the next cycle will produce. The 3 year training contract FOs are starting to upgrade - them leaving after upgrade has more of an effect.

Here's a simple and LEGAL strategy we should adopt. We go to the company and ask for their best rates. TA section 3 on WHATEVER THEY PROPOSE. I don't care if its Delta-50, the same we have right now or even if its concessionary. Just get something on paper. Section 3 is ALWAYS the long pole in the tent. Then, negotiate the rest of the contract with the most improvements that we can.

Then, take that PoS contract TA to the MEC/LEC and have them vote to push it forward to the pilot group. But this time - instead of the roadshow song and dance patting the NC on the back and saying this is the best, just put the TA out and tell people to vote their conscience.

Then see what happens. Yeah, risky, I know. But, I'm willing to bet it gets voted down. I'm betting it doesn't even get 30% yes. I'm surmising this will be the singularly galvanizing event for the pilot group. Everyone's mad. Other airlines, when they learn of how low the rates are, will laugh. And even more people will bail. You want unity? The company's greed will make that happen.

So, this will give the NC the leverage to go back in w/ INDUSTRY STANDARD rates. Yeah, back to the drawing board. Much longer wait time. But keep in mind that attrition is just getting higher and more and more pilots are disappointed.

If, by some chance, the vote comes back > 50%, I will gladly refrain from any and all complaining, and show myself to the door.