Originally Posted by
FangsF15
What is the futures contracts for oil deliveries in 6 months? Investors that have skin in the game are betting otherwise.
Again, not saying there won't be paid or consequences. Just that the cries of doom, doom, and black swans are grossly premature (at best).
Again, do you thing Qatar, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are going to just sit and mope while they lose TRILLIONS of petrodollars? (Meanwhile MBS in Saudi is prodding the President to continue to pound Iran. Admittedly, Saudi has different, though overlapping objectives than the US.
Qatar used to play both sides, and did the banking for proxies, and housed thier leaders living in luxury. Think that will continue? I don't.
The futures market doing precisely what futures markets do, pricing the consensus expectation that a disruption is temporary. More critically, the futures market and the physical market have broken apart entirely. Dubai crude used to price Asian oil is currently trading at roughly $37 to $40 per barrel above what futures contracts imply, a gap that was less than a dollar before the conflict. Which market would you trust, the one settling in paper, or the one settling in physical barrels?
Invoking the futures curve as evidence against an energy crisis is like pointing to a weather forecast calling for sun next week as proof that the hurricane currently making landfall is grossly premature. The screen and the physical world are telling two different stories. One of them is getting delivered to refiners at $138 a barrel.
The futures curve is also structurally blind to the nat gas dimension entirely. There is no futures curve pricing the reconstruction timeline of Qatar's North Field. There is no long-dated contract market telling you when the LNG supply growth story the market had priced through 2030 gets restored.