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Old 04-05-2026 | 02:26 PM
  #7  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
In 2012, Richard Anderson did something no airline CEO had ever done: he bought an oil refinery. The Trainer refinery outside Philadelphia, operated through Monroe Energy, cost Delta $250 million all-in.

The analyst community largely scratched their heads. Competitors did nothing.Thirteen years later, Monroe has quietly become one of the most valuable assets on Delta's balance sheet. The original target was $300 million in annual fuel savings, which technically meant the whole investment paid for itself before the ink was dry.

Over the years Monroe delivered, lowering our average fuel cost every single year it operated. In 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent refining margins through the roof, Monroe generated $777 million in operating income in a single year. Against a $250 million investment.

Now the Strait of Hormuz situation is doing it again. Crack spreads are widening, jet fuel is spiking faster than crude, and every carrier without a refinery is eating it raw. United is warning that sustained prices could add $11 billion to its annual fuel bill. American revised its Q1 2026 cost forecast up $400 million. Meanwhile Ed Bastian is out here calling Monroe a "significant hedge" on the refining margin, with Monroe profits expected to start flowing again in Q2.
Cumulative savings are well past $2 billion at this point.

On a $250 million investment!

Southwest's fuel hedging program in the 2000s is the only comparable move in modern airline history, saving them billions while competitors filed for bankruptcy. But Southwest was trading paper contracts with expiration dates. Delta owns the infrastructure. When the hedges roll off, the pipes keep running.

Anderson called it the equivalent of buying one widebody. Turns out it was worth a fleet.
What you miss Trip is the decoupling of the old " ways"

Oil is going regional. You live in a nation that is a net producer you'll weather this fine.

You live in a net importing nation i.e. you have no production you're going to get hammered

The game board is changing you should pay attention to that. But if you are invested on our production side you'll do well

Many changes coming. RAND has some great pieces written about that changing paradigm
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