The way I'm tracking it, RU is losing hardware and troops which it won't be able to replace anytime soon.

The looming political pain point for Vlad is when they run out of paid volunteers and have to start sending conscripts to the front lines on a wholesale basis. Especially conscripts who are much older than 18, and will need to be press-ganged out of whatever life they've established.

I'm surprised RU has held up as well as they have lately, but I guess Vlad doesn't really have a choice.

Many UA fighters don't have a choice either... they're probably terrified as to what a RU occupation would look like for them personally.