Originally Posted by
jerryleber
Sorry, the "spigot actually (didn't) shut".
1973–74 Shock: Arab oil producers embargoed the US, with production cuts amounting to about 7% of global oil consumption. Oil prices quadrupled in some markets.
1979–80 Shock: The Iranian Revolution led to a decrease of nearly 4.8 million barrels per day, roughly 7% of world production at the time.
Ok. Spigot being a euphemism.
US ops haven't destroyed any energy infrastructure. If you're referring to Kharg Island; only military targets were hit.
As stated earlier, global shortages are in the 5-7 billion barrels/day ballpark. That's in-line with the 70s embargo numbers and current Brent is at $103. So similar daily deficit to the embargo days (with more energy produced today then before so that 7% is even lower) and only $3 per barrel more than 2022; again, this is a short term shock, not some mass global catastrophe that you stated from the IEA's panicked message of "in the history of the global oil market."