Originally Posted by
Beech Dude
Ok. Spigot being a euphemism.
US ops haven't destroyed any energy infrastructure. If you're referring to Kharg Island; only military targets were hit.
As stated earlier, global shortages are in the 5-7 billion barrels/day ballpark. That's in-line with the 70s embargo numbers and current Brent is at $103. So similar daily deficit to the embargo days (with more energy produced today then before so that 7% is even lower) and only $3 per barrel more than 2022; again, this is a short term shock, not some mass global catastrophe that you stated from the IEA's panicked message of "in the history of the global oil market."
Head, meet sand. Conservative estimates say 30-40% of Persian Gulf infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. Gulf states are being very cagey about publicizing damage, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the percentage is actually higher. 20% is an absolutely huge shock to the system and that’s not even accounting for things like the specific kerosene needed to make ice resistant Jet A or natural gas, which are being squeezed even tighter. The fact that a barrel of oil hasn’t absolutely skyrocketed in price yet is meaningless if your airline can’t put fuel in the tanks at any price.