Originally Posted by
OpieTaylor
20% SOH number is already dated because Saudi has a huge pipelines that can pump crude west across the country but it still needs to be loaded on ships, so normally cheaper to not pay to pump crude from one port to another port. Please explain how 5m barrels per day shortage jumps oil to $200, when average consumption was 106m bpd @$60 per barrel.
Check your premises. 5m bpd? Try 16m bpd.
The Saudi East-West pipeline system (Petroline) which has been damaged to some extent by Iran can transport up to 7m bpd, though in early 2026, about 2m bpd was being used, leaving some spare capacity, but the Red Sea port of Yanbu can only handle about 5m bpd. So that is an additional 3m bpd and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) is now pumping near its max of 1.8m bpd up from its normal 1.0m bpd. So that would mean an additional 3.8m bpd or about 20% of what typically goes through the Strait of Hormuz (20m bpd). And if the Yanbu crude heads south it has to go by Yemen and the Houthi’s.