Originally Posted by
gottagetout
yeah it’s sad isn’t it? I don’t want it to happen but I’m having a really hard time seeing how we succeed on our own. Our debt levels have exploded over the past few years and it’s amazing because all we’ve done is shrink. Not like management took on debt to make us grow substantially. We took on debt and shrunk. Makes sense. So while I hope it doesn’t happen, I’ve thought for a while now we are just a few steps behind spirit.
We won't succeed on our own. I don't disagree with that part of yorur premise. What I disagree with is that we slowly sell off our operation, piece by piece, trying to survive as long as possible and maybe find a new "Sweet Spot" as a niche, East coast regional-level operator.
That's not happening. Not to mention while CH 11 could come sooner than later, CH 7 is years away. You think these guys want to chance waiting for the next administration to try this?
We're going to have an airline bid for us. More than likely more than one because once the first domino falls, there will be others that jump in to defend their turf. To say that United or any airline can just sit back and wait until JB liquidates and then just buy what they want at pennies on the dollar is laughable. That's not how it works. There is ZERO guarantee these airlines end up with the slots/planes/etc because many airlines will be bidding on the same thing.
So if United, or Alaska or whomever wants certain real estate and assets, then they're going to have to pay. Over pay to be more specific. There are several creative ways that airlines can deal with debt, so while it's not ideal, JB's debt is not a deal breaker for several airlines who are kicking the tires right now.