Originally Posted by
BlueDrlver
Uh... that might be exactly how this works out. What you are saying is certainly possible, but you are stating it as an absolute fact. It's one possible scenario, the other is the Spirit scenario others have outlined. The market thinks the spirit scenario is more likely. I hope you are correct, but to speak as if this is all a done deal and people are worrying about nothing is foolish and short-sighted.
I think management has realized our only viable path is getting sold, but that is still outside of anyone's direct control. Maybe our debt is worse than the value we may bring. Or maybe the DOJ blocks it again, we all thought Spirit was a done deal until it wasn't and they're not going to exist anymore.
I think I have a bad habit of stating my position where others perceive it as me taking it as fact. (Re: oil prices). I'll work on that.
No, I know there are no guarantees in anything in life, this process is no different. My comments come from my BELIEF that while the airlines would love to pick up JB's assets at bargain basement prices, the timeline for them to potentially achieve that is not in their favor. I still believe that any transaction will culminate before the end of Trump's term. If you back that up using traditional merger timelines, I think any airline would need to make their move sooner than later. Like this summer/early fall sooner. I no longer believe JB management has faith they can pull us out of the nose dive they put us in to begin with. So they're looking to pull their (golden) parachutes and put this 25 year social experiment to bed once and for all. I still believe that the Spirit deal was killed by the last administration due to their ideology concerning mergers/acquisitions. I do not believe the Trump DOJ has the same philosophy.
So yeah, I think this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to gain a foothold in some extremely high-sought after real estate. Each airline we've discussed has it's own reasoning as to why it would benefit them. We'll see how this plays out. The next 3-6 months will be interesting to follow. Then once (if) an airline makes its first move, that's when the popcorn gets popped and things get really interesting.
Again, disclaimer. Not fact based writing. My opinion stated in very confident undertones with zero inside information other than my own pea brain thoughts and ideas based on what I've observed.