Oil has already gone from 120 to the 80s and the regional conflict isn't even over yet. I wouldn't be too pessimistic about energy costs long term. You'll either see the price spike and make a higher high or it will chop around and gradually get lower. No one can predict the future. You've got to let the trend confirm. So far we are chopping around and getting slowly lower. If oil is 150 in July I'll be very concerned.