Roughly $40 million in cash is sent out on April 29 for salaries. We'll see if they get past that payment.

In their March 13 turnaround plan ($2.43/gallon fuel), negative cash flow in May was expected to be $70 million. Their cash low point was expected to be $430 million on May 30, before June travel picks up.

In comparison to their $430 million cash trough, they expected roughly $450 million in cash to be held by the credit card processor, encumbered cash, and set aside accounts - the easiest accounts to skip a payment to. Yes, the best case scenario was always going to be really, really tight.

If you think that Spirit may have spent $70 million in additional fuel costs, net of higher ticket cash receipts, they could be at the $430 million level on April 29, before the May negative cash flow starts. Spirit spent $63 million in fuel during the 28 day month of February.

Also, May follows a predictable pattern. Cash flow, at $2.43 per gallon, was expected to be positive in the first week, negative in the second (employee pay), positive in the third week, negative in the fourth week (pay again). Extra fuel costs probably doesn't turn first week and third week cash flow negative, but I could be wrong.

If the checks clear on April 29, the next important date is May 14. I'm fairly certain that whatever Federal agency is being asked to pony up knows the important days and cash balances.

If the polymarket prediction for April 30 is wildly different than that of April 28, someone could be "predicting" based on inside information.