Originally Posted by
ramp9
What makes you think the legacies are walking into the same environment that produced the last round of contracts?
Fuel costs have moved higher again, some airlines are already trimming growth, and there’s more focus on protecting margins than expanding at all costs. That’s happening now, not hypothetically.
At the same time, they’re carrying significantly higher fixed labor costs from the last round of deals, which were negotiated during one of the strongest demand environments the industry has ever seen.
Demand still looks solid, but the landscape is clearly shifting from expansion toward cost control.
Personally, I think expecting another quick cycle of outsized gains like we saw post-COVID is optimistic. The current environment looks materially different than the one that produced those contracts.
Well, they ain’t going backwards. We clearly need to be aiming at legacy pay rates plus some percentage in order to maintain competitiveness. A snap up clause would be great, but I don’t have my hopes up as FedEx failed to secure one. Of course, that’s all before we even talk about trip trades, trip change premiums, minimizing circadian shifts, adding 117 equivalent protections, a retirement bump, cash over cap, etc. You get the idea…it’s a long list, and while we certainly won’t get all of it, it’s going to take a solid 90% of what I just mentioned and then some to earn my yes vote. Make no mistake; for a whole lot of us ‘newer than 2014’ folk, this contract is going to have to be fairly epic for us to vote it in. “Best we could negotiate” and “there’s only so big a slice of the pie” excuses won’t cut it this time around.