Originally Posted by
Lobaeux
Thanks!! This is some great information and what a lot of us are looking for. A true kick in the teeth, but all we can do now is pick ourselves up, dust off, stay humble and remember NO ONE owes us a thing. As heartbreaking as this has been, it is also pretty exciting... new challenges, new experiences, new friends.
Glad it was what you were looking for, and if there are others looking for this kind of information this is what we see as of today. Assuming everything stays as is - number of pilots on property, bypass percentages, fleet size, and that you are hired today etc.. We know however that there are aircraft purchases (XLRs, 787s), and with that comes more pilots, and there will be early outs, none of which is accounted for below.
Total pilots: 16,680
Retirements to come:
2026: 603 (Remainder)
2027: 722
2028: 672
2029: 640
2030: 583
2031: 624
End of year seniority for someone hired today:
2026: 16078 -> 96.4%
2027: 15356 -> 92.0%
2028: 14531 -> 87.1%
2029: 14044 -> 84.2%
2030: 13461 -> 80.7%
2031: 12873 -> 77.2%
Most Junior Today:
Lineholder: 737 LAX FO 168XX
Captain Today: 737 NB CA #139XX
WB FO Today: 777 FO #132XX