It is very difficult to determine this but sometimes you'll see where in the callout they stop (somewhere in the middle) and the person paid is extremely senior or extremely junior. But there are times it lands on someone and they straight up pay someone else (despite knowing who on the list it is). It usually involves callouts with multiple trips, them doing weird things like running quick slip then IA then quick slip, etc. Seems like if it's not very obvious they'll do a shwag which is often the wrong person. I'm sure they care very little which pilot gets the free money.

Beyond that, if it's not 23M7 to a quick slip, there is a good chance they won't assign any 23M7 pilot. They often don't identify a 23M7 pilot when they jump to short call, and almost never identify one for reroutes.

I've seen a lot of shenanigans and when you crew assist it, they usually immediately respond that crew assists aren't needed since 23M7s are "automated." After you appeal, it'll get stuck in the month's long queue. If it was for a white slip, often the pilot has no more white slip pickup and they won't pay them anything.