50% should do the trick.

But 40%, plus stagnation and consolidation might not. That is worst case, but rational worst case not crazy pessimistic worst case.

Worth noting that on the AS side we have a backlog of senior FO's waiting to upgrade, as in senior to our junior CA's. Recent contractual improvements and basing shuffle is probably going to flush out those people on future bids. Always a few lifer FO's, but the number is too big for that.

We don't have the retirements of the big three, and our growth is historically measured at best. Last M&A consolidation dumped all VX airbus with basically no replacements. The airline ended up right back where it started after the dust settled (covid early outs helped ease the pain, which was felt way more in CA than in SEA).