Originally Posted by
Tinpusher007
Don't the current fleet of 220s fit this niche well? I don't believe we need another shrunken narrow body for performance reasons. They already tried that with a small fleet of 737-700s and ditched them after covid. I dont see them making the same choice now with the max. But one day, the 737-800s/A320/A319 will need a replacement. One could argue that DL could have picked from any of the current offerings to start replacing these jets already, especially the A320s. Instead they have chosen to extend the life of some with new cabins and updated avionics. That would seem to indicate that they don't yet see an optimal replacement and that the economics of keeping some of these older birds flying makes more sense than purchasing what they consider to be sub-optimal replacements. I personally believe that the A220-500 that hopefully comes free of engine problems checks the boxes on their wishlist. But I dont think Airbus is as enthused about making it. So they must have a plan B in mind.
One also has to consider that these aircraft that need replacing were bought during a different time and for different missions than DL is looking to serve now. The 319, for example is small but also has good range for a domestic airplane. DL doesnt seem to want small airplanes these days but does like range, so even though the A223 seems an obvious replacement on paper, it might not be the obvious choice. But then almost everyone seems to be avoiding the A320 NEO as well, but not the MAX 8 to the same extent. For the remaining 320/737-800, knowing DL, I could see them simply ordering a large batch of either 321NEOs or MAX 10s to replace everything or splitting an order for 321NEOs for the 320s and MAX 10s for the 738s, respectively.
unsure about the 223. Like I said in my original post that may be the answer. If the 73m8 can carry about 30 more people with similar performance it may be worth looking at a couple dozen for places where we can’t just add more flights and don’t want to cut capacity by 40% from a 757.
The 319s 320s and 738s will probably be done in the early to mid 2030s. My understanding is the avionics upgrades to the 320s were necessary because they stopped making CRT screens, so it was either upgrade them or park them in the next year or 2, which was too soon for DL. Based on what I’ve seen I’d wager a majority of those block hours will be replaced with max 10s and 321NEOs with some of the 319 flights going to the 223. No clue if they will upgauge the 717 flights to the newer much larger aircraft or replace them with 220s, probably a mix of both.