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Old 05-19-2026 | 12:08 PM
  #280  
Tar Heel 84
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Joined: May 2026
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Originally Posted by Trip7
Couldn't agree more. I will say that paying down a 5%+ mortgage is likely better than investing in an S&P 500 ETF that trades at historically high multiples right now. History has shown real returns of -2% to 2% over 10 years when buying at the current Shiller PE ratio. But that assumes putting all your eggs in at the top as dollar cost averaging would almost certainly lead to higher returns, particularly when continuing to purchase during market crashes. Your thesis on liquidity stands true. The Dave Ramsey approach works well for those that are not financially savvy or don't have the willpower to avoid spending a substantial portion of their liquidity on material things

On the other hand, it is not difficult to become financially savvy. Again, it does not require a high IQ to use 4th grade level math to read financial statements, have a little patience, and ignore the fast money high flying meme/tech/AI stock noise. Especially when buying below replacement cost. Commercial Real Estate investors regularly outperform the SPY because many use 4th grade level math to buy below replacement cost and it's a bit easier to ignore noise because there is no daily ticker on the asset. Using this strict value based approach when it comes to Commercial Real Estate or Public Equities easily yields 15%+ IRRs over the long term.

My advice, learn to read financial statements then start digging around at small companies where there is little competition from large funds because the company is too small to move the needle. If the company has little to no analyst coverage even better. AI has made researching companies much easier. Here's an example of value hiding in plain sight:

Mammoth Energy Services
Ticker TUSK

Read the latest 10K and 10Q. Get AI to summarize/guide if you need to. You'll quickly realize there is no need to pay down a mortgage when there are opportunities like this hiding in plain sight. The best part, these opportunities are never discussed on CNBC or Bloomberg

84% of active managers underperform the S&P over a 10-year period. If you can consistently outperform the index using "4th grade level math" you should be a portfolio manager and leave the flying to the rest of us.

Check out SPIVA research on actively managed vs index returns over the last 20 years.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/re...a/about-spiva/
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