Originally Posted by
Boomer
The real question is: which regional isn't facing the long odds you just presented?
Comair is currently Delta's reserve airline. Delta decides which routes Comair flies or drops. Delta decides if Comair grows or parks planes. Delta decides if Comair is profitable - "Hey, someone buy these guys, they're a great value!" or not profitable - "You guys are costing us millions, vote in paycuts or we'll just close you down"
That said, 9 months ago upgrades at Comair were in the 6-7 year range. Today the trend is down to 5.5 years, and (based on current upgrade awards and class dates) will be down to 5 years this November.
If the "possible flying" materializes, Comair's upgrade may get down to 4 - 4.5 years in early 2009. It all depends on Delta.
It's still anybody's guess who's regional will be "the sure thing" for 2008, let alone 2009.
Comair is certainly not alone in that it is facing some tough economic challanges. Yes, the whole airline industry is facing serious, significant and unparalled financial challenges. That's pretty obvious. So, your "real question" is such a no brainer that it doesn't even need to be stated. Also, this thread, and my previous posts pertain to Comair, not other airlines.
Correct, Delta is Comair's only customer and Comair is Delta's reserve airline. So, the NKOTB's are the reserves for the reserves. That's great. Whether it's Delta's management, or Comair's that makes the final decision on what routes Comair flies is splitting hairs quite frankly. I don't recall the exact verbiage that was used, but the fact is a Comair rep told us during the company presentation that if fuel prices do NOT decrease significantly next year they will probably discontinue flying certain routes that are no longer profitable, until such time as fuel costs go down significantly. And that this reduction in flying could affect the length of time that a newhire is on reserve for and possibly mean less hours of available flying that they might be assigned in a given month while sitting on reserve (I think he mentioned something about this being more so in CVG than JFK). That's the gist of what we were told, I am just throwing it out there and asking the hard questions to verify that info. So, if the flying doesn't materialize next year then what? I suppose upgrades will be back up in the 6 -7 year range again.
As for which regional will come out as a sure thing this year, or next, I agree it's somewhat a matter of personal opinion. Although, technically it's no longer a "regional" SkyWest would be the closest thing to a financial sure thing that you'll find amongst the express/connection feeder carriers in the US, followed by Comair.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlen...aspx?id=237841