I don't think any one can really say what the optimal price of oil is. I think speculators do have much to do with the price rise but a lot is the dollar as well. There isn't much slack in the oil supply chain but I agree with the Saudis that the price is too high. The rise in oil corresponds to how much and how fast the fed cut interest rates to try and stop the damage from the real estate bubble bursting. If they start raising rates I think many people will pull money out of commodities and prices will come down. But, again this is just more speculation.