Bluebrother is correct. For everything there is a cost and a benefit. In some cases there is a cost and NO benefit.
When a carrier is going BK, it's easy to say, "what's your union doing for you now?" This simplistic statement completely discounts all that came before. What did they give back relative to what they gained over the life of the union?
There are many examples of failure in the airline industry. One has to chose to believe that those failures were due to unions. Personally, I think that's a pretty simplistic view.
Even if one choses to believe that the foundation of work rules, safety enhancements, and subsequent pattern bargaining that produced $300,000 annually are the causes of the industries woes - that argument is apples to oranges for us.
Why?
Because to be accurate we should compare ourselves to other LCC's - Southwest, Airtran, Frontier, and America West. None of these unions can be accused (rightly or wrongly) of bankrupting their carriers.
The next step is to determine what exactly is to be gained and is it worth 1%.
Logically, it should all boil down to cost vs. benefit. But it never does.
Much of the time it's how hard did you push your junior folks and how lavishly did you reward your senior folks.
In other words, how many pilots are you accumulating that feel exploited or abused. The words expoited or abused are relative to a number of things including compensation, benefits, and quality of life. For example, is 75 hours adequate compensation for the level of grief imposed on someone's life and schedule?
An informal vote to determine what the pilots want would be completely inaccurate and would more than likely be used as propoganda against a secret ballot. The reasons for an inaccuracy are:
1. Reluctance to vote for fear of being known.
2. Eagerness to vote to show one's blueness.
3. Apathy because the vote will be known to have bias.
A secret ballot conducted be the NLRB is the only way for the true desire of Jetblue pilots to be known.
I would guess that this vote is far from imminent.
There are miles of debate and there many brave souls that would have to step forward before any serious thought could be given to a card campaign.
My guess is two years but it's really hard to say because a lot of things can happen in the industry and within Jetblue.
I don't personally believe that the Values Committee should be steered in any way towards this endeavor. They were voted in under a certain set of assumptions.
If an organizing campaign is to be undertaken, it should be conducted by people with belief, empathy, understanding, and fortitude. It should be guided by either ALPA or representatives from SWAPA. Either group is available for consultation and hosting private meetings. SWAPA has helped a number of pilot groups who've decided to organize as an independent association.
Unions are democratic and political.
Ultimately, each individual pilot will determine whether or not the people who've stepped forward as potential representatives are truly doing so to benefit ALL Jetblue pilots on a go forward basis.
Of course, after months and months of debate, it may be determined that most of us are happy the way we are.
I know that ALPA would not conduct a ballot unless they felt assured that at least 70% of the pilots would vote in favor. I think that's a pretty wise goal. Nobody wants a 51% vote.
Beware of the sound bite. If someone isn't up to debating every last BORING detail of every single BORING issue - then their opinion should be accepted but it shouldn't be taken as gospel. The details matter. Statistics matter. Percentages matter. The economy matters. The balance sheet matters. Sweeping, declarative statements without substance don't matter.