I believe speculation plays a very minor role in the oil prices we're seeing today. Supply is the fundamental issue, it's just that the tight supply has induced a sort of paranoia that causes $5-10 swings in the price of oil. Less than a week ago there was a fleeting sense of optimism that oil prices were receding...down to a bargain buy @ $136/bbl fueled by rumors that the American dollar was getting stronger (false) and that supply for the week was greater than expected.

Then the Iranians tried to flex their muscle(which they don't have), fired some test missiles, concerns re: supply were exacerbated by "what if" scenarios concerning an interuption in supply from the middle-east due to a full-scale war w/ Iran. So oil shot back up to $146/bbl.

In my view, these minor swings are the net result of speculation. The fundamental is that supply is tight, production has peaked/flattened out at about 85 million bbl/day give or take a million, and demand is skyrocketing worldwide due to impressive growth figures out of China and India...China still growing about 8 percent/year, that requires quite a lot of oil to sustain. There are also some other emerging countries/economies that are straining the system. In other words, more and more countries are competing for those 85 million/bbl of oil per day, which will necessitate price increases across the board. Don't need to be an economist to figure that out.

The net price of oil will remain high. I believe this is attributed to the fundamentals of supply and demand/production capacity. In adopting a nuanced view, I do think speculation plays a small part in the rise and fall of prices...just not as large a part as production capacity vs. supply.

How is this relevant to our thread? The way I see it, most of this info. has been around since the 1950's. We all knew these days would come, we just didn't bank on it happening during our lifetime. Well, they're here, our CEOs had ample time to mitigate the consequences...that's why they get paid the big bucks, right? No whining, no excuses, they did a terrible job of managing so many of these airlines. But of course, they can't take responsiblity for this, so they sign a form letter and turn to their main lobbyist in Washington, the Air Transport Association, to try and make it look like none of it was their fault. I don't blame the CEOs for the price of oil, but it is their job and duty to lead the airlines through these difficult times, not point fingers and make excuses.

Personally, I think a bunch of the CEOs on that list should be castrated so their kind don't muck up anything else...a little harsh, but that would certainly be more effective than a form letter to the public.