I think hiring is going to be weak for a very long time. If oil retreats, most fare-setting airlines are going to stay constricted for a few more years in hopes of replenishing cash and paying down debt. Also, I expect any profits realized by the fare-setting airlines (my new line in the sand between a regional and a major) will be invested into replacing old equipment as opposed to increasing fleet size. This capacity reduction needed to happen for the airlines to return to being healthy businesses.

Pilots will retire, and through that attrition you will see some hiring once the furloughs are recalled. That hiring will be steady, but slow. Slow and steady is what wins the race, and when you see the airline hiring following that trend, you will know health has been restored to our industry.

In the mean time, if you see any gang-busters hiring, it will be at those carriers who have survived to pick up the pieces of a fallen airline. Places like Mesa will continue to hire due to rampant attrition, but hiring in these times should almost be a bad omen.

Do what you please, but don't expect to "make it" if you make it to the airlines. Upgrades everywhere will be at an Eagle pace, in Piedmont increments. Most attrition will occur among junior captains and senior FO's. The current state of affairs is going to make for a lot of lifers at the regionals. No airline is exempt, and as to who is going to prosper the most, well it really is luck of the draw. Wholly owned vs. contract carrier? Regional vs mainline? Prop vs. regional jet? Every side has its merits, but merit is not going to win this battle of survival. Pick a team and strap in, and know where your other options lay.

One good thing:
for the most part, management teams have not touted pay cuts as the key to survival. Sure, Xjet has, but I think that is an educated request meant to keep wages in line with the new rates Xjet agreed to fly for with CAL. Air Tran has asked too, but in poor taste. Everyone else, despite furloughs and soaring oil, has left the subject of pilot pay alone. Management realizes that a few million in wage concessions is trivial compared to fuel costs. So for anyone who wants to enter in this game now, at least you can expect pay to stay level. Of course gas and milk will triple, but what can you do?