Originally Posted by nicholasblonde

I was jumpseating on a FedEx flight the other day, and the captain told me he felt that anyone who could keep their job and keep flying through the next 2-5 years would have it made once things inevitably get better (even if only slightly better). I know tons of regional FOs who--if and when they get furloughed--have zero intention of ever coming back to aviation...our internet generation and the extremely low pay makes it to where most people will just give up and go do something that pays better...no one my age is going to wait around for a recall letter. This also factors into flight training--most aspiring aviators of the text-messaging, reality-TV era don't have the patience (or cash) to make it through a CPL or instructing b/c now they don't have the promise of immediate gratification--flying the shiny jet they wanted to fly.

Plenty of people were willing to shell out 50K to fly an RJ within a year...but how many are willing to now shell out 90-100K+ to fly an RJ "possibly within the next 5 years."

And the elderlies in the left seats at all the majors will eventually have to leave...which from most economic history looks to be right around when things should rebound..

A triple whammy--no one is training to become pilots, existing pilots (both young and old) will eventually vacate the profession voluntarily or involuntarily, and the economy and fuel prices will eventually reverse trend. I predict anyone left standing with fresh 121 time in 4-5 years will have some great opportunities.