Thread: Oil Forecasts
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Old 07-21-2008 | 07:50 PM
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seafeye
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Default Oil Forecasts

Not too bright....

Forecasted prices and trends
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency expressed his opinion in October, 2007 that oil prices will remain high for the foreseeable future due to rapid increases in demand from the huge developing economies of China and India. Although India has raised prices, China has "no plans" to do so.[117] According to informed observers, OPEC, meeting in early December, 2007, seemed to desire a high but stable price that would deliver substantial needed income to the oil producing states, but avoid prices so high that they would negatively impact the economies of the oil consuming nations. A range of 70–80 dollars a barrel was suggested by some analysts to be OPEC's goal.[118]
Some analysts point out that major oil exporting countries are rapidly developing; and because they are using more oil domestically, less oil may be available on the international market. This effect, outlined in the export land economic model, could significantly reduce the oil available for trade and cause prices to continue to rise. Particularly significant are Indonesia (which is now a net importer of oil), Mexico and Iran (where demand is projected to exceed production in about 5 years), and Russia (whose domestic petroleum demand is growing rapidly).[119]
In May 2008, Barclays Capital raised its forecast for average crude oil price in 2008 from its previous prediction of $100.80/bbl to $116.90/bbl, citing the only modest decreases in oil consumption among OECD countries, strong demand growth among non-OECD countries, the slow development of alternative fuels, and weak non-OPEC supply which "continues to under-perform dramatically relative to consensus expectations."[120]
Also in May 2008, Arjun N. Murti and other Goldman Sachs analysts issued a research report predicting oil prices are likely to rise to between $150 to $200/bbl in the next six to 24 months.[121] This was a marked increase from Goldman Sachs' earlier (September, 2007) forecast of oil prices averaging $85/bbl through 2008, rising to $95/bbl at year end, which was in turn an increase from still-earlier predictions.[122]
Also in May 2008, T. Boone Pickens, Jr., the influential oil investor who believes the world’s oil output is about to peak, warned oil prices would hit $150 a barrel by the end of the year. “Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87m,” Mr Pickens said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s just that simple.”[123]
In June 2008, Alexei Miller, head of Russian energy giant Gazprom, warned that the price of oil is likely to hit $250 a barrel sometime in 2009. Miller said that while speculation had played a role in oil prices, "this influence was not decisive."[124] Bloomberg reported that, as of mid-June, "At least 3,008 options contracts have been purchased giving holders the right to buy oil at $250 a barrel in December".[125]
Also in June 2008, Shukri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, said: "I think it [the oil price] will go higher. That is a trend that will continue for some time. The easy, cheap oil is over, peak oil is looming."[126]
On 26 June 2008, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said in an interview: "I forecast prices probably between $150-170 during this summer. That will perhaps ease towards the end of the year."[127] Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi predicts that the price of oil would reach $150 a barrel by the end of this summer.[128]
Near-term peak oil proponent Matthew Simmons predicts a rise to $300 a barrel or higher by 2013 as sweet crude petroleum becomes more scarce and major producers begin failing to meet demand.[129]
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