Originally Posted by
Biggs
Take this for what its worth
1. Ran into an Management guy the other day that I know and yes I know what you guys are saying (another he/she said deal). So just relaying what was said. Several weeks ago a presentation was given on pilot manning showing the effects of moving MD's down to domestic routes as the rest of the 400's come on line (6 next yr from ANC and 4 new ones will go to domestic). They will be put mostly on DC8 trips or replace 300's/75/dc8 etc (big shuffle). Bottom line This will free up 20 8's by dec 09. Leaving 6 or so 8's to be retired after peack of 09. The 76's will go to international as they come on and some to domestic to take a place on dom routes to replace the last 8's and combinations as stated above. This coupled with the crew complement down from 7 to 4 (int vs dom) will create a excess of pilots in the number to 200 to 300 ( DC8 = 119 capt, 114 fo, 12 FE over 60 and under 64, 6 MD's reduce by a ratio of 6 guys per plane = 36 9int vs dom), add 4 new MD's +48 and 4 new 400's (all 14 are manned, some not trained, according to manpower planning), the 767coming this year are already manned, plus according to manpower planning we are 80 fat at this time with the over 60 crowd on board. He didn't tell me these numbers. I just ran some numbersbased on our conversation so they are a guess but it does come to 313 guys. This number did not include planned, unplanned ret., an open time ban and/or mil leaves, and medical/short term/long term numbers and new 76's coming in the fall 2009. Not starting flame, just seeing it anyone is seeing this, hearing info like this, or even thought about the possibilities of this. Take this along with what Lekites said three weeks ago and this may be what they are thinking. But of course DHL changes everything.
Originally Posted by
Shaggy1970
This info is out there if you want to see it I am not sure many want to read it though.
Biggs/Shaggy1970
Have absolutely no doubt this is what was said. Hear it also, but I also see them preparing for the other scenarios of market growth (independent of DHL, etc). This plan that they could actually implement would cause an immediate operational nightmare and be reversed quickly. What I like to ask when this is regurgitated, is something like "so the MD-11 reliabilty has improved enough to not compromise all the gateways, huh?" I have sat enough Hot/RSV where they launch 2 8's to recover the broken classic 74 or MD-11 from DFW/ONT/PHL. If they park too many of the 8's, reshuffle fleets (the classic lift has to be replaced as well), reduce crews per fleet, they will bind up like they did during SDF ice storms every ten years. Cargo is a bit different too, not as predictable as the core product. UPS has to carry some extra ability even though they want to cut. Reason they avoided cargo in part for so long. Announcing a furlough alone will vacate the excess in pilots. They will suddenly need most every RSV. Never say never of course, glad UPS thinking how to cut excess costs in the event of armageddon, but the cost of screwing up this business is even more costly than the savings. I give UPS enough credit in the smarts dept. to know that service is the lifeblood of our survival. Cost containment just means whether we make 900 million or 1.2 billion in profit. There is a difference.