"it seemed that the agreed thought was that we needed more pilots. AOPA seems to advertise this notion often."

The only people saying we need more pilots are those who can profit from that. AOPA, ERAU, and the big flight academies make money off the back of the misinformed They sell this to you much like truck driving schools sell an easy career to anyone willing to write the check.

People should research the career before they get in. There are no guarantees and it's a different sort of business. Only those who are willing to make some sacrifices will be successful as a pilot. And success is a moving target, with a moving definition, that is different for each person. To each his own.

One thing about the downswings in the cycle. They have a tendency to weed out some of the folks who got into it for the wrong reasons and are better off in another career.

I think this thread is more suitable for the "leaving the career" forum.