Originally Posted by fosters
i've heard the same; it has been decreasing since I left in '05. I don't think it's all about Mesa, personally I think it's about the entire industry...
Yes it is industry wide. New student enrollments are down for everybody. The FAA reports student pilot applications (3rd class medicals) are way off. Many flight schools that were not in the overseas flight training business before have moved aggressively into it (to survive) because of the drop off in US students. Flight schools are offering "fixed price” programs. This is always a sign of desperation. Lastly, Key Bank has all but left the professional pilot training financing business. From 2002 to 2005 they drove a tremendous amount of money into the business and fueled much of the growth. However, their default rate, both student and flight school, has been unacceptably high (we know why!).
It’s starting to show up at CFI level. Two year CFI’s are non-existent. At my old flight school, the only one left is the Chief Pilot. He’s doing all the CFI instruction. He will hire any breathing wet-ticket CFI he can find. He told me that his CFI’s are gone by 600 hours to one of the regionals.
There are approximately 92400 active airline pilots in the US. According to the FAA pilot database as of this month 79611 pilots hold a ATP certificate with a 1st class medical. Another 24537 pilots hold a comm/me/inst with a 1st class medical for a combined total of 104198 pilots. That means the employment rate stands at about 90%, which is getting back into the range of pre 2001. About 7000 pilots out of the 92400 are officially furfloughed, but many (unknown) have either found other flying positions (and therefore are double counted) or have left the industry.