Hate to tell you that we are not in a recession. Look up the definition, then look at the numbers and you will find the answer. Not to say that we are in a slowdown, but nothing supports calling this a recession.
I have not flown with anyone that thinks we cannot or will not be affected by the slowing global economy. Some more senior pilots here may think they will alway have a job, but the combo of age 65, retiring fleets, and slowing economy, have affected almost everyone here.
I know there have been internet rumors of cancelling the 76 order, but I have not heard that one from any of the van drivers. So even without the DHL deal, you would probably see the 8 go with the 76 replacing them all. From what I have gathered, UPS is going to remain about the same size for the time being. It is a huge shift from the rapid expansion that we have seen for the past few years. I would not expect to see 4000 on the list anytime soon.