Not to rag on you but there is NO way that anyone could guess. OPEC themselves were shouting $150-$200 by the end of August. Now look.

Oil is not supply and demand right now. It's speculation based. Everyone shouted it wasn't speculation simply to keep the price up however it's down 50 points in a VERY short time. There's no reason Oil couldn't dive back down to the 60s and there's no reason it can't jump back into the $120+ range. It takes one hurricane, one reserves report, one terrorist act on a pipeline in a country we don't even get oil from, one 3rd world country going to war with another 3rd world country, one wrong word from the Fed Res Chairs mouth, etc. to cause a major spike. Each of these instances have single handily caused 5+ point jumps within minutes. Some well over 10.

If anyone had any idea where oil would be CAL wouldn't have hedged where they did and every airline out there would have hedged more.