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Old 10-08-2008 | 05:14 PM
  #17  
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Rightseat Ballast
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 334
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From: E170/175 CA
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ok, perhaps time will prove me wrong, but...

I see serious flaws in the written article and in the consensus built on this thread that RAH will be operating a small number of aircraft in Hawaii on behalf of Mokulele. One, going to Hawaii is a HUGE investment. RAH operates at minimal risk, and only enters risky agreements if it stands to gain both in the success and the failure of the agreement( loans to Frontier and Midwest that put RAH at the front of the claim line should either fail). RAH is not going to retrofit a handful of planes for the trip over, and then re-refit them for passenger service, send a significant spare parts inventory, send mechanics and crews and the necessary support staff, AND finance/subsidize the operations of a Caravan operator...UNLESS they are receiving backing from another major operator who stands to gain from this arrangement. It is a lot of money you are talking about to send four planes over in hopes of maybe taking a small part of a limited market that is expecting decline, having no customer base or request from the existing customer base for another new airline. Go hasn't left yet. It is still a crowded market. Mokulele does not have the kind of money laying around to make this deal worth it for BB. Money is coming from somewhere. Delta could spend a lot less money by paying lawyers to end MESA. No one needs to send planes to Hawaii to bleed off MESA. One article has been printed by a local newspaper that is quoting directly off of this website (or from a memo provided to them) stating RAH's intention to POSSIBLY open a base in HI. Considering no press release has been made, and the w'low memo did not name a partner airline, I think it is a little soon to think it is Mokulele. No reputable news source has even hinted at Mokulele. Mokulele makes no sense. I could see some alignment between the two only because Mokulele knows that Go will go away, and it is enjoying having a large traffic source feed passengers to them. However, RAH is not going to Hawaii at the behest of Mokulele, and RAH is not going to do standalone operations with 4 planes or less in a completely foreign market with no established customer base, in a declining market. If BB wanted to do some minor standalone work to keep the former F9 birds flying, it would be on the mainland where crews, parts, and other support is readily available. hawaii is too far from the hornet's nest. BB has said repeatedly to his employees that he has no intention of deviating from the CPA business model anytime in the foreseeable future. There are too many risks operating outside of that model that BB does not need to take. Buying fuel in hawaii? Bedford doesn't even buy gas on the mainland. IF RAH ends up in Hawaii, SOMEONE will be defraying the costs and insulating BB from the real finances of airline operations. Maybe Alaska. Maybe Delta. Maybe United. There is more to this deal. Wait and see. Right now it just doesn't make sense.
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