Originally Posted by
Freighter Captain
Facts
-This economic downturn is unprecedented since the inception of the airline
-Volume is down significantly
-We're fat by a few hundred pilots
-UPS has announced a furlough before
-The IPA membership participation is at a record low
-DHL volume gains much lower than originally anticipated
Opinions I've heard
-The threat of a potential IPA open time ban will keep the company from furloughing
-Pilots will engage in a massive open time ban that will cause the company to reduce or cancel the furloughs
-UPS will have to hire to cover the added DHL volume
Remember, we were all under contract negotiations when the last OT ban was 'suggested' by Bob Miller. We all were engaged; unified. Now we have a long term contract, guys looking at their 401-k balances, stock market holdings, home equity; so guys are flying as much as they can to at least keep the cash flow coming. Are we really unified enough that most pilots will be willing to reduce their W-2's by 10-30% because a few hundred pilots are being eliminated off the bottom? Just a reality based question.
Tough times ahead, and I'm in the camp that fears a furlough will happen. But I'm also fearful that we're not as powerful a group as we were in recent past.
There are factors on each side of the issue with merit, but I'm in the "not yet" camp. My two hecto-pascals worth is that if DHL solidifies by the first quarter of '09 and we're pretty much at the bottom of the financial meltdown we won't. I believe that the last furlough threat was a negotiations tactic, so I don't factor that in. Geezerpalooza is a two edge sword, in that if it wasn't for them they wouldn't furlough, but considering the geezer paring restrictions furloughing would be problematic (thank God for augmented legs). And as Salty Dog has pointed out, our core business is so different from the passenger operations. The overwhelming majority of our domestic gateways have one plane in the morning and one at night. If volume is down 25% are they going to NOT run that airplane? I don't think so...they still have to make the core service unless virtually all economic activity ceases. As evidenced by the slight decrease in profit, they simply make a slightly less obscene amount of profit. As far as international ops they may consolidate and/or eliminate some legs (they have been cancelling the ANC-NGO-PVG occasionally and some SDF-ANC), but they don't seem to actually do it until shortly before the flight, so that just means more time off for the same pay
.
I maintain that we'll be the last to put guys on the street, but that it certainly isn't impossible.