Originally Posted by
nightrider
With the 767s starting next year and the remainder of 400' s coming plus the fact that the opentime on each fleet is enough to create another 10 lines of flying which they would have to do if a furlough were mentioned. We actually would be 80-150 short.
Where did you get your information on the 767 and 747 deliveries next year and thereafter? When is the Boeing strike going to be settled? After it is settled, what is the best Boeing can do WRT deliveries? Will UPS want the deliveries soonest, or will they want them delayed?
Could you provide some evidence to support what you believe will be opentime problems on each fleet if it is not picked up? Which fleets and seats are manned such that the reserves can handle any opentime under a ban? Which fleets are undermanned? Which are overmanned?
I haven't seen any evidence to support your statements, and would appreciate some supporting material.
For a starter, here is some data from previous opentime discussions.
During the 2003 ban, it was reported with great fanfare that the average system-wide open time pickup (the previous year) was about 7600 hours per pay period. However, we had system-wide reserve manning then of about 650 pilots. The 7600 hour figure reduces to fewer than 12 hours per pay period (or about 2 days of work) per reserve line. Based upon our normal reserve utilization, this is not a difficult obstacle for schedulers to overcome. Of course, contingency may have to make some equipment substitutions, the schedulers have to work harder, and the line builders have to get a lot more creative. That is what UPS pays them to do, and we have seen that they have gotten better at making the necessary adjustments each time we have tested them.