Old 10-25-2008, 05:26 PM
  #10  
757upspilot
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
There are factors on each side of the issue with merit, but I'm in the "not yet" camp. My two hecto-pascals worth is that if DHL solidifies by the first quarter of '09 and we're pretty much at the bottom of the financial meltdown we won't. I believe that the last furlough threat was a negotiations tactic, so I don't factor that in. Geezerpalooza is a two edge sword, in that if it wasn't for them they wouldn't furlough, but considering the geezer paring restrictions furloughing would be problematic (thank God for augmented legs). And as Salty Dog has pointed out, our core business is so different from the passenger operations. The overwhelming majority of our domestic gateways have one plane in the morning and one at night. If volume is down 25% are they going to NOT run that airplane? I don't think so...they still have to make the core service unless virtually all economic activity ceases. As evidenced by the slight decrease in profit, they simply make a slightly less obscene amount of profit. As far as international ops they may consolidate and/or eliminate some legs (they have been cancelling the ANC-NGO-PVG occasionally and some SDF-ANC), but they don't seem to actually do it until shortly before the flight, so that just means more time off for the same pay .

I maintain that we'll be the last to put guys on the street, but that it certainly isn't impossible.
If the total volume out /in of both Next day and second day to a gateway drops to what can be carried on one airplane, they will likely upgrade the second day and run it all through the next day sort.
They are currently moving the MD back into the states.

If they went down to a next day sort only and used the bigger aircraft they could reduce staffing to what it would take to cover the next day system by eliminating the second day sort.
This would cover the core system.

If volume drops off to this level thats when we will have a problem.

Remember that UPS staffs to what it will take to accomplish the task and not based on what the profit was last quarter.
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