Originally Posted by L'il J.Seinfeld

I just read the complete "right sizing" thread and the entire "UPS furlough facts" thread and have some thoughts. My opinion is not worth more than others, but I feel like the naysayers are paranoid and are not basing their fears on facts, namely Biggs and Frontseat.

First off, UPS is still making nearly 4 billion a year in profits. Yes profits were down 9%, but we still made nearly a billion last quarter. The economists are predicting a recession, but most don't think it will last more than a few more quarters. Continued profits don't guarentee there will not be furloughs, but it shows we are still part of a team that's making a lot of money in a bad economy. When there is a recovery business will boom for UPS and we need to keep our pilots trained and ready to expand. UPS can lay off drivers and bring them back quickly and cheaply, but obviously pilots are different.

If the DHL deal gets announced, even if it is less than originally planned, that's a strong sign that our jobs are safe and that there may be some hiring in the Spring.

If the DHL deal falls through and IF UPS decides to cut back it will be with the DC-8 fleet. The 8's are old, ugly, and inefficient just like the 75 or so PFEs or over age 65 FEs that operate them and the classic 747. By eliminating that fleet you eliminate 75 off the seniority list that can't train in the front seat. That leaves around 275 pilots from the 8 to be absorbed. I think 200 would be the max number that we could conceivably furlough, but that amount would have to be spread out over the drawdown of the DC-8. I don't think we could make service with a drastic and speedy grounding of the DC-8 fleet. Assuming UPS agrees and they decide to phase out the 8s over 18 months or so that would coincide with the 125 or so retirements of current front seaters with birthdays in 1944-47. There will be a lot of seats opening on the -400 just based on retirement numbers and a few more out of sympathy if a furlough is announced. Factor in a few dozen mil leave folks and the furlough number drops to 100 or so. The open time ban in our contract in the event of a furlough will protect 100 jobs!!

The junior guys in ANC, whom I think are the ones fearing the furlough the most, see a very different company than those junior folks based in the lower 48. I look at the senior capts on the -400 and see many names that were FEs on the 727 and 747. Many are great guys and I enjoyed flying with them. But some are scum of the Earth dudes that were aviation rejects in the 80's and lucked their way into one of the best jobs in aviation. The fact that I lucked my way into this job is beside the point. I'm sorry that someone has to listen to them talk about their money and toys between ANC and HKG. I feel very confident that enough of us in the IPA would honor an open time ban in the event of a furlough that it would not be worth it for UPS.

So if you've read this far and disagree with my analysis tell me how I am wrong. I am junior and a little nervous about all the furlough talk too. But it just does not make business sense for UPS to furlough.

Lil Jerry Seinfeld, MBA, Junior Dude