Its all timing. With the stagnation being the current situation with most if not all airlines in this country, upgrade times are varying widely. When I started at Comair a year and a half ago, the most junior captain had been on the property for 6 years. After all the downgrades and furloughs are complete it will be more like 10 years.

Some guys get lucky and upgrade in a year or two, but those days are pretty much gone right now. Realistically right now you should prepare to spend at least 5-10 years at a regional before you will be in a position to apply to the majors. You have time on your side, being only 16. I remember being in your shoes.. when I was 16, 9/11 had just happened and I was wondering if there was even a future in aviation. A lot has happened since then and we had one huge hiring boom in 2007. That is bound to happen again sometime down the road, but maybe not as big as it was then.

Places like great lakes are airlines where you are reasonably assured a quick upgrade time... but even that is subject to change. I would imagine that a lot of younger guys getting on at SWA and Spirit got in at the beginning of a hiring boom or slightly before and their seniority allowed them a quick upgrade. Once they got their magic 1,000 TPIC, they moved on. It can still be done today, but at a slower pace. Hang in there, finish high school, get a degree (non aviation related) and your ratings. Instruct for a while, fly skydivers on the weekends, etc. and have fun. If you have the determination and right attitude, you'll make it.