Originally Posted by
kersplatt
Ever since I got into aviation 11 years ago there have been predictions of pilot shortages. I think we saw glimpes of it in the summer of 2001 and 2007. However, 9/11 ruined it in 01 and all the fuel prices for 08. There are so many variables that you can't say when a shortage may happen because a terrorist attack, fuel prices, bad economy, and who knows what else could change it within a month to furloughs throughout the industry.
However, if a lot of companies hedge well, and no terrorists attacks, it is possible that in 2012 the hiring will be up and a lot of Favre pilots will finally hang their hats.
I agree with most of your statement here except in 2008 pilot hiring at Majors was completely wiped out by AGE 65 rule change primarily AND the incredible fuel price increase.