I think the major airlines were going to lose 30-35% of their pilots over the next few years due to retirements and there was going to be a major shortage and crisis for the majors is why we saw the hiring spree at all the regionals last year. 2007 was great for people looking for their first jobs at the regional level with sign on bonuses being given out and the lowest minimums we have seen in years.

All this hiring was done because the majors were going to pull people from within the ranks of the regionals due to those increased retirements last year. But what happened then? The age 65 rule was passed, and all the newbies were pushed back basically 5 years.

This is the reason why we saw much reduced hiring at the start of this year, 1st quarter of 2008. And then, the gas prices hit a record followed by the economy crashing. This caused the furloughs and freeze on hiring by most airlines.

But my prediction and of most other people is that once that age 65 rule catches up in 2012, we surely will see another hiring spree at the regional level and also at the majors. Maybe it might not be like 2007, but I think it will be relatively the same, lowered minimums and a lot of bridge programs going through. Increased pay? I guess not.

In 2012, those 30-35% people who were to retire at the majors last year and then ended up getting a chance to serve for another 5 years, will have to start leaving as I doubt FAA will push up the retirement age to 70. And as soon as that happens, and the majors start hiring again, the regionals will pick up as well.

I also doubt the majors will cut flights back to the extent that 30-35% of their pilots leave, and it wont affect their operation. The economy will improve, obviously not overnight but by 2010 we should see it back on the upward curve. So fingers crossed.. just my 2 cents!