Originally Posted by
3greens
I think the major airlines were going to lose 30-35% of their pilots over the next few years due to retirements and there was going to be a major shortage and crisis for the majors is why we saw the hiring spree at all the regionals last year. 2007 was great for people looking for their first jobs at the regional level with sign on bonuses being given out and the lowest minimums we have seen in years.
All this hiring was done because the majors were going to pull people from within the ranks of the regionals due to those increased retirements last year. But what happened then? The age 65 rule was passed, and all the newbies were pushed back basically 5 years.
This is the reason why we saw much reduced hiring at the start of this year, 1st quarter of 2008. And then, the gas prices hit a record followed by the economy crashing. This caused the furloughs and freeze on hiring by most airlines.
But my prediction and of most other people is that once that age 65 rule catches up in 2012, we surely will see another hiring spree at the regional level and also at the majors. Maybe it might not be like 2007, but I think it will be relatively the same, lowered minimums and a lot of bridge programs going through. Increased pay? I guess not.
In 2012, those 30-35% people who were to retire at the majors last year and then ended up getting a chance to serve for another 5 years, will have to start leaving as I doubt FAA will push up the retirement age to 70.
And as soon as that happens, and the majors start hiring again, the regionals will pick up as well.
I also doubt the majors will cut flights back to the extent that 30-35% of their pilots leave, and it wont affect their operation. The economy will improve, obviously not overnight but by 2010 we should see it back on the upward curve. So fingers crossed.. just my 2 cents!
I'm a positive guy. As such, I hate to pour cold water on much deserved exuberance. However, I'm also a practical guy driven mostly by facts and I'm afraid I have some cold ones for you. The number of pilots reaching mandatory retirement age in 2012 at DAL is
2. That's right,
2.
"yea, but DAL is a relatively young group and they just merged with the old farts @ NWA and the flood gates of retirements will open from that side in 2012."
Sorry, wrong again. The total 2012 number from NWA is
15. On Dec. 8th we became the largest seniority list in the world @ 12,400+ and a grand total of
17 of us will be forced to retire in 2012.
Now, it does pick up over the next 10 years from the NWA guys and the following decades from the original DAL guys but your salvation (or mine for that matter) does not lie in 2012. Any significant hiring at any level of the next 5-10 years will have to come from a strong economic recovery and the resultant growth in block hours.
It is true though, what someone said in another post. A young guy who gets hired at American in 8-10 years at the start of the wave will have an enviable, meteoric, and phenomenal career. If your 15-20 years old, start racking up that experience and your connections at American. You could have a 35-40 year career the last decade (if not longer) of which you'd spend as #1 on the list.