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Old 12-15-2008 | 05:12 AM
  #61  
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saab2000
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Originally Posted by Deez340
I'm a positive guy. As such, I hate to pour cold water on much deserved exuberance. However, I'm also a practical guy driven mostly by facts and I'm afraid I have some cold ones for you. The number of pilots reaching mandatory retirement age in 2012 at DAL is 2. That's right, 2.

"yea, but DAL is a relatively young group and they just merged with the old farts @ NWA and the flood gates of retirements will open from that side in 2012."

Sorry, wrong again. The total 2012 number from NWA is 15. On Dec. we became the largest seniority list in the world @ 12,400+ and a grand total of 17 of us will be forced to retire in 2012.

Now, it does pick up over the next 10 years from the NWA guys and the following decades from the original DAL guys but your salvation (or mine for that matter) does not lie in 2012. Any significant hiring at any level of the next 5-10 years will have to come from a strong economic recovery and the resultant growth in block hours.

It is true though, what someone said in another post. A young guy who gets hired at American in 8-10 years at the start of the wave will have an enviable, meteoric, and phenomenal career. If your 15-20 years old, start racking up that experience and your connections at American. You could have a 35-40 year career the last decade (if not longer) of which you'd spend as #1 on the list.
What you say may be true WRT to Delta/NWA. But there will be regular attrition, and rising rapidly, at all airlines starting in 2012.

There will be virtually no attrition until then, obviously, but at that time some airlines will start having regular retirements that will only increase in the subsequent years.

There will be jobs available again.

Look for most applicants to be 10000 hour RJ pilots.
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