Thread: EV Furlough
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Old 12-17-2008 | 02:06 PM
  #22  
Whacker77
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From: CFI
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I hope this doesn't come to pass at ASA. As a finance major, there's an old saying that comes to mind. "Don't fight the Fed." Right now, they're pouring money into the system and the stock market seems to be discounting improvement in the economy by the summer. If that's the case, it would seem odd to furlough now instead of September when things were quite dour. Also, flying is going to increase some for the summer months, right?

I know there are some predicting financial catastrophe for the U.S., but things are much different today than they were in the Depression. At this point during the Depression, unemployment was at 25%, banks were failing by the thousands, and property had decreased by 50%. We're not seeing anything close to that now. At the most, unemployment might hit 8.5%. This recession is going to be tough, but likely only a bit worse than that of 1973 and 1982.

Things can turn around faster than you think though. In 1921 after Warren Harding took office, the country went through a terrible recession. In 1921, unemployment went from 4% or 5% to 16% or 17% in 1922. Back in those days, Adam Smith's invisible hand and laizze faire economics ruled. As such, Harding and Andrew Mellon (Treasury) did nothing and allowed the economy to correct naturally. By 1923, unemployment was back to 5% or so.

Sorry for the trip back in time, but I thought it might be interesting to show how things can turn around. If ASA does furlough, best of luck and hopefully it won't last too long.
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