Originally Posted by
coryk
I think a few regionals will start emtying their pools in a year or so, while furloughs will be called back around the same time and end 2 years from now. Small-scale hiring will start in 1.5 to 2 years for attrition only, and when age 65 picks up in 3-5 years I see hiring all accross the boards from the regional level to the major/national level. Will we see a 1.5 year upgrade then, possibly. Who knows. Just my guess...
I'm just curious what everyone thinks?
I agree for the most part, but I dont think there will be as much hiring at the major level in 3-5 yrs. I expect lots of mergers, further capacity reduction, and stronger alliances with foreign carriers(maybe even mergers). Hiring will be small scale but steady at the regional level mostly to cover attrition as opposed to expansion. I think there will be a shift away from fragmenting regional flying, and instead bringing it together either to wholly owned affiliates or a small number of large regional carriers doing most of the flying (Skywest, RAH/CHQ, Expressjet). I dont think youll see a 1.5 yr upgrade at any carrier in the next 5 years.