Ted,
Second hand from a second hand rumor?? OK, flame response <g>
Look back at what happened when the 72 fleet was shutdown. Do you know the history? Well, what resulted was UPS paid alot of 72 crews to sit around for months and months without a training class. (Filled up by new hires and other must pumps to ANC , etc) In other words, poor coordination and planning. Paid vacation without penalty. Woo hooo. Was it something UPS would repeat?
I'd say UPS is very intelligent. They learn well. They took that lesson and had a new plan. Lets look at the closeout of the 74 classics. Any 74 crews sitting around??? Nope, they went so far as to manipulate the contract to call just about every seat critical for peak. This allowed them to throw seniority out the window for training slots. In other words, the classic 74 crews are the first to go to training as soon as they parked the last jet. Planned that way for the last year. Most had no break from last flight to class date.
Does anyone really think that UPS would shutdown a fleet entirely over night and have over 300 crew members sitting around who cannot be furloughed nor trained for months?? (seniority for Capts and all F/O's and most every S/O (except most junior just trained).
The ensuing freefall of ANC seats would gridlock operations and affect likely nearly a thousand training events. If they furloughed, then add even more plus the union would invoke contractual option to no assistance for JA/OT etc. UPS would get no side letter assistance either. IMO, UPS followed the CBA regarding the absorption of the over 60 law. That was in no one's business plan, etc. The contract has been followed and it was challenging for both company and union to adjust the seats. It has just about settled, can't see management go turn the cart over wholesale again.
Can see the predictable phaseout via heavy checks reasonable and able to plan displacements, etc. That is my expectation. Slow, but steady over a few years like the classic 74. The displacements on the 8 are coming in smaller bites. What if UPS decides no vacancy bid and simply does a displacement? Allows the diplacees to go where seniority contractually allows. Will see very few training events, and no one leaving current seats (current fleets just grow by a few numbers as displaced crews move themselves)